It’s 2050. How can we use backcasting to get us to a future we want — in the midst of a global pandemic?
How to use it in a real life scenario?
So imagine the writers of the show ‘Report from 2050’ had started with their desired outcome, Sweden is carbon neutral by 2050. But how do we get there? What strategic thinking do we need to do?
Like any complex problem, first you start with a challenge statement
- Write your HMW for the future scenario you want.
How might we…facilitate a a carbon neutral City. (this can also be more product driven of course.. HMW facilitate connection between similar communities to combat loneliness) - Brainstorm and Identify the ideal future state(s) regardless of whether it is achievable with the technology and financial resources of today
Citizens are self sufficient for the entire year
Homes are all made out of sustainable building materials - Map events from right (the future state) to left (today) describing what must be true in order to arrive at the desired future end state.
This can be quite a hard stage so there are a couple of starter questions to help.
What things are systematic that might need more time? (therefore need to be later in the timeline)
What behaviours are you seeing in the near future that you can leverage in the now?
What key technology things happen in cycles you can map (launching 5G or new smartphone launched every 4 years)
I imagine these three parts are done in a project kick-off or product/service vision session, try to involve as many people from the business as possible in this part. It’s great to bring different perspectives to the table and it’s a great exercise to get people to think more visionary. Maybe you already have a robust product/service vision and you need to pivot your business in steps 4 and 5.
This is just the first version of this tool, that I used to understand how to pivot during crisis scenario, on reflection could this tool be used to get the entire team forward thinking of the vision of the service based on external factors within society or the business that may affect the overall vision? Let’s see.
Some starting questions to think about…
What tangible things could you get out of this framework?
When is best to use this tool (in a workshop part of the work process) and when in the service lifecycle (during pivots or kick offs)?
If this at all tickles you, please feel free to use the mural template I have created here.
I would love your feedback on the thinking behind this tool. If you have taken a look and think something looks wrong/complicated or you have improvement suggestions please comment on this post below!
Leila Byron 